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In 2023, the warehouse real estate market will slow down somewhat. Analysts’ forecasts.

Less activity of developers, rising costs, less demand for premises – this is the forecast for the warehouse and logistics real estate sector for 2023 from the real estate company CBRE. However, the prognosis is not as bad as it seems at first glance.

Despite the decrease in the volume of warehouse space under construction compared to previous quarters, we expect the warehouse real estate market to grow in the next few years,” the report says.

CBRE expects that the rate of growth of new warehouse and logistics space in the near term will be restrained by the increase in the cost of construction. In addition, rising rents and operating costs will lead to an increased focus on ESG (i.e. environmental, social responsibility and corporate governance) issues.

By the end of 2022, the total area of ​​warehouses in Poland exceeded 27.9 million square meters. m. This is 18 percent more than in the previous year.

Last year, the offer of new warehouse and logistics premises reached a record level. Last year, 4.3 million square meters entered the market. m of new areas. A significant part of them was introduced in the 1st quarter – 1.3 million square meters. m. It was also a historically record quarter.

However, the decrease in development activity on the market, predicted by CBRE, can be seen already in 2022.

If in the 1st quarter 4.5 million square meters were under construction. m of area, then at the end of the year this indicator decreased to 3.4 million square meters. m.

CBRE predicts that demand for warehouse space in 2023 will be at a lower level than in the previous year.

This will be associated, among other things, with a difficult environment, economic uncertainty, as well as an increase in operating costs,” CBRE analysts believe.

CBRE also notes the growing demand for warehouse space from manufacturing companies. After the e-commerce sector stimulated the growth of the warehouse real estate market in recent years, the manufacturing sector will become its leader in the near future.

The bad news for renters is the predicted further increase in rates, although, as the report emphasizes, “not so fast anymore.” Nevertheless, land prices and increasingly higher construction costs are preventing rental rates from falling.