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Experts’ forecasts leave no illusions. There will be no resumption of transport in Europe

According to the latest report by Transport Intelligence (TI), the value growth of the road transport market in Europe will be minimal this year, clearly weaker than in the previous year. There are no signs of a rapid and strong recovery in European transport.

The cooling in the transport market, which was observed in the second half of last year, has moved to 2023. While in 2022, the value of the European road freight transportation market increased by 3.5 percent. compared to a year earlier, the current year brought a significant deterioration in the economic situation.

According to forecasts of TI experts, in 2023 the growth of the value of the road transport market on the Old Continent will be only 1.4 percent.

It is worth noting that in the middle of 2022, TI predicted growth for 2022 at the level of 4.9 percent. However, the weaker second half of the year weakened this result.

High inflation, high energy costs and declining real incomes have led to reduced consumption and production across Europe. This, in turn, means less demand for transport services. This is noticeable both in domestic markets and in international transportation.

As for the value of the transport market, the next few years will not bring a big rebound. From TI forecasts, it follows that in 2022-2027 the average annual growth will be 2.1 percent. This is more than expected growth in 2023, but less than in 2022.

The pain of carriers

A survey conducted for the report shows that 84 percent surveyed European carriers are experiencing increased pressure on margins due to rising costs and weak demand for their services. To limit the impact of these factors on results, carriers most often use three methods: investment in technology, new and better value-added services, and targeting high-margin customers.

An interesting result of the TI survey is the fact that, despite the high-profile topic of avoiding emission transport, only five of the 20 largest European carriers have set targets and deadlines for achieving carbon neutrality.